Chornomorets 2–2 Oleksandria: Result & Stats

Chornomorets

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Oleksandria

V. Vanat 76'

A. Avagimyan 68'

D. Ustymenko 84'

M. Tretyakov 72'

8/27/2021

Premier League · Round 6Stadion Chornomorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Chornomorets36%

×Draw28%

Oleksandria36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChornomoretsExpected goals in this matchOleksandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

Chornomorets

1.15

Oleksandria

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 101 away

1.00

creates per match

1.04

1.26

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Chornomorets

1.00

Oleksandria

1.04

allows per match

Chornomorets

1.26

Oleksandria

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chornomorets+0.00on par

Oleksandria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chornomorets ↓

Oleksandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Chornomorets or draw

64%

Chornomorets or Oleksandria

72%

Draw or Oleksandria

64%

Winning margin

Chornomorets wins by 2+

15%

Oleksandria wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chornomorets 1+ goals

68%

Chornomorets 2+ goals

32%

Chornomorets 3+ goals

11%

Oleksandria 1+ goals

68%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

32%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chornomorets (draw refunded)

50%

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chornomorets at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.29 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chornomorets attack 1.00 + Oleksandria defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Oleksandria attack 1.04 + Chornomorets defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Chornomorets scores more

36%

level

28%

Oleksandria scores more

36%

Chornomorets at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Chornomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Maksym Bragaru

18'

Vladyslav Babohlo

32'

Mykola Mykhailenko

46'

V. Odaryuk← O. Kozhushko

46'

S. Rybalka← I. Kalyuzhnyi

62'

Y. Smyrnyi← V. Bugay

62'

V. Vanat← S. Kravchenko

62'

D. Ustymenko← C. Spinelli

68'

A. Avagimyan

71'

G. Tsitaishvili← M. Bragaru

72'

M. Tretyakov↳ S. Rybalka

76'

V. Vanat↳ D. Kuzyk

80'

E. Mustafaev← K. Kovalets

84'

D. Ustymenko↳ E. Mustafaev

87'

D. Sukhoruchko← Y. Isaenko

87'

D. Skorko← A. Avagimyan

90+3'

Danyil Sukhoruchko

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ChornomoretsOleksandria

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots11

5Corners5

14Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots11

5On Target6

5Off Target5

Passing

52%Possession48%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Premier League: Chornomorets 2–2 Oleksandria

Chornomorets and Oleksandria drew 2-2 in Premier League on August 27, 2021.

Goals: A. Avagimyan (68'), M. Tretyakov (72'), V. Vanat (76'), D. Ustymenko (84').

Chornomorets controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadion Chornomorets in Odessa.

Chornomorets vs Oleksandria — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Premier League: Chornomorets 2–2 Oleksandria