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Chorley vs Buxton — League #50 2026

Chorley
Chorley
Preview
14:00
Buxton
Buxton
10/24/2026League #50League #50 · National League North - 13Victory Park
Big match
43%
Chorley
model favours
43%23%35%

Chorley score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chorley43%
×Draw23%
Buxton35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chorley
1.80
Buxton
1.61

Chorley creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

creates per match

Chorley
2.00
Buxton
1.67

allows per match

Chorley
1.56
Buxton
1.60

finishing

Chorley+0.00on par
Buxton+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chorley ↓

Buxton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Chorley or draw
65%
Chorley or Buxton
77%
Draw or Buxton
57%

Winning margin

Chorley wins by 2+
23%
Buxton wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chorley 1+ goals
83%
Chorley 2+ goals
54%
Chorley 3+ goals
27%
Buxton 1+ goals
80%
Buxton 2+ goals
48%
Buxton 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Chorley (draw refunded)
55%
Buxton (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chorley at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Buxton away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chorley attack 2.00 + Buxton defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Buxton attack 1.67 + Chorley defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chorley scores more
43%
level
23%
Buxton scores more
35%

Chorley at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chorley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Buxton score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in 80% of Chorley’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Chorley
DLLL
Buxton
WWLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chorley face Buxton (League #50)

League #50 returns with Chorley hosting Buxton. Match starts October 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chorley host Buxton at Victory Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.