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Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Youth Island — FA Cup 2019

Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Preview
11:35
Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
7/21/2026FA CupFA Cup · Round of 16Tongliang Long Stadium
45%
Qingdao Youth Island
model favours
32%23%45%

Chongqing Tongliang Long score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chongqing Tongliang Long32%
×Draw23%
Qingdao Youth Island45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.50
Qingdao Youth Island
1.83

Qingdao Youth Island creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long
2.00
Qingdao Youth Island
1.67

allows per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long
2.00
Qingdao Youth Island
1.00

finishing

Chongqing Tongliang Long+0.00on par
Qingdao Youth Island+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Tongliang Long ↓

Qingdao Youth Island →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Chongqing Tongliang Long or draw
55%
Chongqing Tongliang Long or Qingdao Youth Island
77%
Draw or Qingdao Youth Island
68%

Winning margin

Chongqing Tongliang Long wins by 2+
15%
Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Chongqing Tongliang Long 1+ goals
78%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2+ goals
44%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 3+ goals
19%
Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
84%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
54%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Tongliang Long (draw refunded)
41%
Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Tongliang Long at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Qingdao Youth Island away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 2.00 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.67 + Chongqing Tongliang Long defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chongqing Tongliang Long scores more
32%
level
23%
Qingdao Youth Island scores more
45%

Qingdao Youth Island at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Qingdao Youth Island will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 92% of Qingdao Youth Island’s matches
  • Qingdao Youth Island score first in only 31% of matches
  • Both teams score in 77% of Chongqing Tongliang Long’s matches
  • 44% of Qingdao Youth Island’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Long
DLWWL
Island
LWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Youth Island — Match Preview

Chongqing Tongliang Long face Qingdao Youth Island on July 21, 2026 in this FA Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Chongqing Tongliang Long host Qingdao Youth Island at Tongliang Long Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.