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Chomutov vs Dobříš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Chomutov
Chomutov
PST
14:30
Dobříš
Dobříš
4/5/20204. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Round 20Letní stadion na Zadních Vinohradech (Chomutov)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Chomutov74%
×Draw15%
Dobříš11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chomutov
2.75
Dobříš
0.99

Chomutov creates 178% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 24 away

creates per match

Chomutov
2.08
Dobříš
0.96

allows per match

Chomutov
1.02
Dobříš
3.42

finishing

Chomutov+0.00on par
Dobříš+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chomutov ↓

Dobříš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Chomutov or draw
89%
Chomutov or Dobříš
85%
Draw or Dobříš
26%

Winning margin

Chomutov wins by 2+
53%
Dobříš wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Chomutov 1+ goals
93%
Chomutov 2+ goals
75%
Chomutov 3+ goals
51%
Dobříš 1+ goals
63%
Dobříš 2+ goals
26%
Dobříš 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chomutov (draw refunded)
87%
Dobříš (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chomutov at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Dobříš away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chomutov attack 2.08 + Dobříš defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.75

Dobříš attack 0.96 + Chomutov defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Chomutov scores more
74%
level
15%
Dobříš scores more
11%

Chomutov at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Chomutov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chomutov host Dobříš

April 5, 2020: Chomutov take on Dobříš in 4. liga - Divizie B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chomutov host Dobříš at Letní stadion na Zadních Vinohradech (Chomutov).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.