Chojniczanka Chojnice 3–1 Jastrzębie

Chojniczanka Chojnice

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Jastrzębie

E. Drozdowicz 88'

A. Papikyan 52'

T. Mikołajczak 14'

D. Tront 2' (pen)

9/29/2019

I Liga · Round 11Stadion Miejski Chojnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice40%

×Draw26%

Jastrzębie33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chojniczanka ChojniceExpected goals in this matchJastrzębie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.23

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.38

Jastrzębie

1.23

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 12% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 65 away

1.36

creates per match

0.98

1.47

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.36

Jastrzębie

0.98

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.47

Jastrzębie

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

Jastrzębie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw

67%

Chojniczanka Chojnice or Jastrzębie

74%

Draw or Jastrzębie

60%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+

19%

Jastrzębie wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals

75%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals

40%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals

16%

Jastrzębie 1+ goals

71%

Jastrzębie 2+ goals

35%

Jastrzębie 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)

55%

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 47 matches

Jastrzębie away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.40 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.36 + Jastrzębie defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Jastrzębie attack 0.98 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more

40%

level

26%

Jastrzębie scores more

33%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

D. TrontPenalty

8'

M. Obrocnik

14'

T. Mikołajczak

26'

J. Podgórski← M. Obročník

35'

O. Mazurkiewicz← D. Kulawiak

50'

J. Podgorski

52'

A. Papikyan

53'

K. Sylwestrzak← M. Kuzimski

58'

O. Paprzycki

59'

A. Żak← J. Wróbel

62'

K. Jadach

69'

M. Żukowski← A. Papikyan

74'

R. Adamek← Ł. Norkowski

88'

E. Drozdowicz

89'

D. Tront

Chojniczanka

Jastrzębie

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: J. Petrik

26'▲J. Podgórski←▼M. Obročník

53'▲K. Sylwestrzak←▼M. Kuzimski

69'▲M. Żukowski←▼A. Papikyan

Chojniczanka Chojnice substitutes

PodgórskiSylwestrzakŻukowski

Manager: J. Skrobacz

35'▲O. Mazurkiewicz←▼D. Kulawiak

59'▲A. Żak←▼J. Wróbel

74'▲R. Adamek←▼Ł. Norkowski

Jastrzębie substitutes

MazurkiewiczŻakAdamek

I Liga: Chojniczanka Chojnice 3–1 Jastrzębie

Chojniczanka Chojnice beat Jastrzębie 3-1 in I Liga on September 29, 2019.

Goals: D. Tront (2' pen), T. Mikołajczak (14'), A. Papikyan (52'), E. Drozdowicz (88').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Chojnice in Chojnice.

Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Jastrzębie — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Chojniczanka Chojnice 3–1 Jastrzębie