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Choco vs Villalbés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Choco
Choco
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Villalbés
Villalbés
4/11/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 2Campo Municipal de Santa Mariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Choco43%
×Draw28%
Villalbés29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Choco
1.30
Villalbés
1.03

Choco creates 26% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 94 away

creates per match

Choco
1.55
Villalbés
0.90

allows per match

Choco
1.16
Villalbés
1.05

finishing

Choco+0.00on par
Villalbés+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Choco ↓

Villalbés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Choco or draw
71%
Choco or Villalbés
72%
Draw or Villalbés
57%

Winning margin

Choco wins by 2+
19%
Villalbés wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Choco 1+ goals
73%
Choco 2+ goals
37%
Choco 3+ goals
14%
Villalbés 1+ goals
64%
Villalbés 2+ goals
28%
Villalbés 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Choco (draw refunded)
59%
Villalbés (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Choco at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Villalbés away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.05 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Choco attack 1.55 + Villalbés defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.30

Villalbés attack 0.90 + Choco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Choco scores more
43%
level
28%
Villalbés scores more
29%

Choco at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Choco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Choco 4–3 Villalbés

Choco beat Villalbés 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Santa Mariña in Redondela.