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Choco vs Barco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Choco
Choco
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Barco
Barco
12/13/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Campo Municipal de Santa Mariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Choco44%
×Draw26%
Barco30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Choco
1.48
Barco
1.19

Choco creates 24% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 78 away

creates per match

Choco
1.55
Barco
1.21

allows per match

Choco
1.16
Barco
1.42

finishing

Choco+0.00on par
Barco+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Choco ↓

Barco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Choco or draw
70%
Choco or Barco
74%
Draw or Barco
56%

Winning margin

Choco wins by 2+
21%
Barco wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Choco 1+ goals
77%
Choco 2+ goals
43%
Choco 3+ goals
19%
Barco 1+ goals
70%
Barco 2+ goals
33%
Barco 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Choco (draw refunded)
59%
Barco (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Choco at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Barco away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Choco attack 1.55 + Barco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Barco attack 1.21 + Choco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Choco scores more
44%
level
26%
Barco scores more
30%

Choco at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Choco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Choco 1 – 1 Barco

Choco and Barco drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Santa Mariña in Redondela.