Chitipa United vs Mitundu Baptist

Chitipa United

Preview

12:30

Mitundu Baptist

9/5/2026

Super League · Round 13

58%

Chitipa United

model favours

58%27%14%

Chitipa United score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

69%

under 2.5 goals

32%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chitipa United58%

×Draw27%

Mitundu Baptist14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chitipa UnitedExpected goals in this matchMitundu Baptist

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.55

Chitipa United

1.42

Mitundu Baptist

0.55

Chitipa United creates 158% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

0.25

0.86

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Chitipa United

1.33

Mitundu Baptist

0.25

allows per match

Chitipa United

0.86

Mitundu Baptist

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chitipa United+0.00on par

Mitundu Baptist+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chitipa United ↓

Mitundu Baptist →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Chitipa United or draw

86%

Chitipa United or Mitundu Baptist

73%

Draw or Mitundu Baptist

42%

Winning margin

Chitipa United wins by 2+

30%

Mitundu Baptist wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Chitipa United 1+ goals

76%

Chitipa United 2+ goals

41%

Chitipa United 3+ goals

17%

Mitundu Baptist 1+ goals

42%

Mitundu Baptist 2+ goals

11%

Mitundu Baptist 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Chitipa United (draw refunded)

80%

Mitundu Baptist (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chitipa United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 66 matches

Mitundu Baptist away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chitipa United attack 1.33 + Mitundu Baptist defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mitundu Baptist attack 0.25 + Chitipa United defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chitipa United scores more

58%

level

27%

Mitundu Baptist scores more

14%

Chitipa United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Chitipa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in only 25% of Chitipa United’s matches
69% of Chitipa United’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Chitipa United and Mitundu Baptist have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

United

DWLLL

Baptist

DWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff