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Chitipa United vs MAFCO — Super League 2026

Chitipa United
Chitipa United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
MAFCO
MAFCO
11/11/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Chitipa United46%
×Draw28%
MAFCO26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chitipa United
1.32
MAFCO
0.91

Chitipa United creates 45% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 80 away

creates per match

Chitipa United
1.33
MAFCO
0.91

allows per match

Chitipa United
0.90
MAFCO
1.31

finishing

Chitipa United+0.00on par
MAFCO+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chitipa United ↓

MAFCO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chitipa United or draw
74%
Chitipa United or MAFCO
72%
Draw or MAFCO
54%

Winning margin

Chitipa United wins by 2+
21%
MAFCO wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chitipa United 1+ goals
73%
Chitipa United 2+ goals
38%
Chitipa United 3+ goals
15%
MAFCO 1+ goals
60%
MAFCO 2+ goals
23%
MAFCO 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chitipa United (draw refunded)
64%
MAFCO (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chitipa United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

MAFCO away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chitipa United attack 1.33 + MAFCO defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

MAFCO attack 0.91 + Chitipa United defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chitipa United scores more
46%
level
28%
MAFCO scores more
26%

Chitipa United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chitipa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chitipa United vs MAFCO

Chitipa United and MAFCO drew 1-1 in Super League on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.