Chitipa United vs Karonga United

Chitipa United

Preview

12:30

Karonga United

2/6/2027

Super League · Round 29

Big match

50%

Chitipa United

model favours

50%28%23%

Chitipa United score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

62%

under 2.5 goals

43%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Chitipa United50%

×Draw28%

Karonga United23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chitipa UnitedExpected goals in this matchKaronga United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.84

Chitipa United

1.39

Karonga United

0.84

Chitipa United creates 65% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 82 away

1.33

creates per match

0.78

0.90

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Chitipa United

1.33

Karonga United

0.78

allows per match

Chitipa United

0.90

Karonga United

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chitipa United+0.00on par

Karonga United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chitipa United ↓

Karonga United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Chitipa United or draw

77%

Chitipa United or Karonga United

72%

Draw or Karonga United

50%

Winning margin

Chitipa United wins by 2+

24%

Karonga United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chitipa United 1+ goals

75%

Chitipa United 2+ goals

40%

Chitipa United 3+ goals

16%

Karonga United 1+ goals

57%

Karonga United 2+ goals

21%

Karonga United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Chitipa United (draw refunded)

69%

Karonga United (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chitipa United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Karonga United away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chitipa United attack 1.33 + Karonga United defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Karonga United attack 0.78 + Chitipa United defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chitipa United scores more

50%

level

28%

Karonga United scores more

23%

Chitipa United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chitipa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in only 25% of Chitipa United’s matches
69% of Chitipa United’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

United

DWLLL

United

LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff