Chippa United 2–3 Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

Chippa United

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

Evanga 54', 37'

J. Malongoane 90'

N. Ndlondlo 83' (pen), 30'

2/26/2022

Premier Soccer League · Round 16Sisa Dukashe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Chippa United42%

×Draw30%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chippa UnitedExpected goals in this matchTshakhuma Madzivhadila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.85

Chippa United

1.14

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

0.85

Chippa United creates 34% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 76 away

0.83

creates per match

0.72

0.98

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Chippa United

0.83

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

0.72

allows per match

Chippa United

0.98

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chippa United+0.00on par

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chippa United ↓

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Chippa United or draw

73%

Chippa United or Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

70%

Draw or Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

58%

Winning margin

Chippa United wins by 2+

18%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chippa United 1+ goals

68%

Chippa United 2+ goals

32%

Chippa United 3+ goals

11%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1+ goals

57%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2+ goals

21%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Chippa United (draw refunded)

61%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chippa United at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.98 · 123 matches

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chippa United attack 0.83 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.14

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.72 + Chippa United defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chippa United scores more

42%

level

30%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila scores more

27%

Chippa United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chippa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Riaan Hanamub

30'

N. Ndlondlo↳ M. Timm

37'

Evanga↳ R. Maloisane

46'

P. Mokhele← T. Sekotlong

46'

T. Makobela← T. Lebitso

54'

Evanga↳ S. Luthuli

59'

Celimpilo Ngema

77'

S. Sibeko← L. Mabotja

83'

N. NdlondloPenalty

84'

L. Lamola← K. Otladisa

90'

J. Malongoane↳ S. Dion

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ChippaTshakhuma

Overview

32%Possession68%

7Total Shots9

4Corners4

14Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots9

2On Target4

5Off Target5

Passing

32%Possession68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1