Chippa United vs Tshakhuma Madzivhadila — Premier Soccer League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 76+ matches
Chippa United42%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Chippa United creates 34% more chances
Season form · 123 home / 76 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under68
- Over32
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Chippa United ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Chippa United at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.98 · 123 matches
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Chippa United attack 0.83 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.14
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.72 + Chippa United defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.85
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Chippa United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Chippa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Chippa United host Tshakhuma Madzivhadila on Sunday, 29 November 2020 at 13:30. The match is part of the Premier Soccer League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Chippa United vs Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
Chippa United and Tshakhuma Madzivhadila drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on November 29, 2020.
Goals: A. Chidi Kwem (25'), T. Rakhale (51').
The match was played at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium in Port Elizabeth.