Chippa United 3–1 Maritzburg Utd: Result & Stats

Chippa United

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Maritzburg Utd

11/3/2020

Premier Soccer League · Round 2Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Chippa United38%

×Draw33%

Maritzburg Utd29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chippa UnitedExpected goals in this matchMaritzburg Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.81

Chippa United

0.98

Maritzburg Utd

0.81

Chippa United creates 21% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 77 away

0.81

creates per match

0.64

0.99

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Chippa United

0.81

Maritzburg Utd

0.64

allows per match

Chippa United

0.99

Maritzburg Utd

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chippa United+0.00on par

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chippa United ↓

Maritzburg Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Chippa United or draw

71%

Chippa United or Maritzburg Utd

67%

Draw or Maritzburg Utd

62%

Winning margin

Chippa United wins by 2+

14%

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chippa United 1+ goals

62%

Chippa United 2+ goals

26%

Chippa United 3+ goals

8%

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals

56%

Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals

19%

Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Chippa United (draw refunded)

57%

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chippa United at home — creates 0.81, concedes 0.99 · 120 matches

Maritzburg Utd away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chippa United attack 0.81 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.98

Maritzburg Utd attack 0.64 + Chippa United defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chippa United scores more

38%

level

33%

Maritzburg Utd scores more

29%

Chippa United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chippa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff