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Chindia Targoviste vs Viitorul Constanta — Liga I 2018

Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Viitorul Constanta
Viitorul Constanta
7/19/2019Liga ILiga I · Round 2Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Chindia Targoviste34%
×Draw29%
Viitorul Constanta37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chindia Targoviste
1.09
Viitorul Constanta
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 59 away

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.05
Viitorul Constanta
1.07

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.25
Viitorul Constanta
1.14

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par
Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

Viitorul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw
63%
Chindia Targoviste or Viitorul Constanta
71%
Draw or Viitorul Constanta
66%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
13%
Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
66%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
30%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
10%
Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals
69%
Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals
32%
Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
48%
Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

Viitorul Constanta away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.05 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.07 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more
34%
level
29%
Viitorul Constanta scores more
37%

Viitorul Constanta at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Viitorul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Chindia Targoviste 0–1 Viitorul Constanta

Viitorul Constanta beat Chindia Targoviste 1-0 in Liga I on July 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Ilie Oană in Ploieşti.