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Chico vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2018

Chico
Chico
Preview
19:00
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
11/4/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 18Estadio La Independencia
Big match
44%
Chico
model favours
44%29%27%

Internacional de Bogota win just 27% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Chico44%
×Draw29%
Internacional de Bogota27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chico
1.27
Internacional de Bogota
0.94

Chico creates 35% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 171 away

creates per match

Chico
1.14
Internacional de Bogota
0.90

allows per match

Chico
0.97
Internacional de Bogota
1.41

finishing

Chico+0.00on par
Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chico ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chico or draw
73%
Chico or Internacional de Bogota
71%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
56%

Winning margin

Chico wins by 2+
20%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chico 1+ goals
72%
Chico 2+ goals
36%
Chico 3+ goals
14%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
61%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
24%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chico (draw refunded)
62%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chico at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 110 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 171 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chico attack 1.14 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.90 + Chico defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chico scores more
44%
level
29%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
27%

Chico at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chico fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Chico
Direct / counter-attacking
Internacional de Bogota
Balanced
45%Possession46%
76%Pass accuracy76%
9.5ShotsBiggest gap12.4
1.25xG0.97
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ChicoInternacional de Bogota

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Chico
3
Draws
4
Internacional de Bogota
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 30%
0–40–01–01–00–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chico
LDWDW
Bogota
LLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chico face Internacional de Bogota (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Chico hosting Internacional de Bogota. Match starts November 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chico host Internacional de Bogota at Estadio La Independencia.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.