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Chico vs Águilas Doradas — Copa Colombia 2019

Chico
Chicoadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
9/19/2024Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Round of 16Estadio de La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Chico45%
×Draw26%
Águilas Doradas29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chico
1.48
Águilas Doradas
1.12

Chico creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Chico
1.31
Águilas Doradas
1.09

allows per match

Chico
1.15
Águilas Doradas
1.64

finishing

Chico+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chico ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chico or draw
71%
Chico or Águilas Doradas
74%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
55%

Winning margin

Chico wins by 2+
22%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chico 1+ goals
77%
Chico 2+ goals
43%
Chico 3+ goals
19%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
67%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
31%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chico (draw refunded)
61%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chico at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chico attack 1.31 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Águilas Doradas attack 1.09 + Chico defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chico scores more
45%
level
26%
Águilas Doradas scores more
29%

Chico at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Chico 2–1 Águilas Doradas

Chico beat Águilas Doradas 2-1 in Copa Colombia on September 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de La Independencia in Tunja.