Chicago Red Stars W 0–0 NJ/NY Gotham FC

Chicago Red Stars W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

NJ/NY Gotham FC

5/23/2021

NWSL Women · Round 1SeatGeek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Chicago Red Stars W36%

×Draw26%

NJ/NY Gotham FC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Red Stars WExpected goals in this matchNJ/NY Gotham FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.32

Chicago Red Stars W

1.30

NJ/NY Gotham FC

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 86 away

1.42

creates per match

1.27

1.37

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.42

NJ/NY Gotham FC

1.27

allows per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.37

NJ/NY Gotham FC

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

NJ/NY Gotham FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Red Stars W ↓

NJ/NY Gotham FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chicago Red Stars W or draw

63%

Chicago Red Stars W or NJ/NY Gotham FC

74%

Draw or NJ/NY Gotham FC

64%

Winning margin

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

16%

NJ/NY Gotham FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

73%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

37%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

14%

NJ/NY Gotham FC 1+ goals

73%

NJ/NY Gotham FC 2+ goals

38%

NJ/NY Gotham FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

49%

NJ/NY Gotham FC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Red Stars W at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 84 matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.42 + NJ/NY Gotham FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

NJ/NY Gotham FC attack 1.27 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

36%

level

26%

NJ/NY Gotham FC scores more

37%

NJ/NY Gotham FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff