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Chicago Red Stars W vs Kansas City W — NWSL Women - Challenge Cup 2020

Chicago Red Stars W
Chicago Red Stars W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kansas City W
Kansas City W
7/30/2023NWSL Women - Challenge CupNWSL Women - Challenge Cup · Group Stage - 4SeatGeek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chicago Red Stars W35%
×Draw29%
Kansas City W36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago Red Stars W
1.10
Kansas City W
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Chicago Red Stars W
1.09
Kansas City W
1.33

allows per match

Chicago Red Stars W
0.91
Kansas City W
1.11

finishing

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par
Kansas City W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Red Stars W ↓

Kansas City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chicago Red Stars W or draw
64%
Chicago Red Stars W or Kansas City W
71%
Draw or Kansas City W
65%

Winning margin

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+
14%
Kansas City W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals
67%
Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals
30%
Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals
10%
Kansas City W 1+ goals
67%
Kansas City W 2+ goals
31%
Kansas City W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)
49%
Kansas City W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Red Stars W at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Kansas City W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.09 + Kansas City W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Kansas City W attack 1.33 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Chicago Red Stars W scores more
35%
level
29%
Kansas City W scores more
36%

Kansas City W at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Kansas City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chicago Red Stars W vs Kansas City W

Chicago Red Stars W and Kansas City W drew 0-0 in NWSL Women - Challenge Cup on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at SeatGeek Stadium in Bridgeview, Illinois.