Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chicago Fire vs CF Montreal — Major League Soccer 2018

Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
CF Montreal
CF Montreal
7/13/2023Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 33Soldier Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Chicago Fire50%
×Draw23%
CF Montreal28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago Fire
1.83
CF Montreal
1.31

Chicago Fire creates 40% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

creates per match

Chicago Fire
1.91
CF Montreal
1.39

allows per match

Chicago Fire
1.23
CF Montreal
1.76

finishing

Chicago Fire-0.36scores less
CF Montreal+0.18scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Fire ↓

CF Montreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Chicago Fire or draw
72%
Chicago Fire or CF Montreal
77%
Draw or CF Montreal
50%

Winning margin

Chicago Fire wins by 2+
27%
CF Montreal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chicago Fire 1+ goals
84%
Chicago Fire 2+ goals
54%
Chicago Fire 3+ goals
28%
CF Montreal 1+ goals
73%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
38%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chicago Fire (draw refunded)
64%
CF Montreal (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Fire at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.23 · 20 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Fire attack 1.91 + CF Montreal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.83

CF Montreal attack 1.39 + Chicago Fire defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chicago Fire scores more
50%
level
23%
CF Montreal scores more
28%

Chicago Fire at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chicago Fire will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chicago Fire vs CF Montreal

Chicago Fire beat CF Montreal 3-0 in Major League Soccer on July 13, 2023.

The match was played at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois.