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Chicago Fire II vs Toronto II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
Preview
19:00
Toronto II
Toronto II
8/10/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group StageSeatGeek Stadium
Big match
53%
Chicago Fire II
model favours
53%21%26%

81% of Toronto II’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chicago Fire II53%
×Draw21%
Toronto II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago Fire II
2.14
Toronto II
1.44

Chicago Fire II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 50 away

creates per match

Chicago Fire II
2.36
Toronto II
1.32

allows per match

Chicago Fire II
1.56
Toronto II
1.92

finishing

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par
Toronto II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Fire II ↓

Toronto II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Chicago Fire II or draw
74%
Chicago Fire II or Toronto II
79%
Draw or Toronto II
47%

Winning margin

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
32%
Toronto II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
88%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
63%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
36%
Toronto II 1+ goals
76%
Toronto II 2+ goals
42%
Toronto II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
67%
Toronto II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Fire II at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Toronto II away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.92 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Fire II attack 2.36 + Toronto II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.14

Toronto II attack 1.32 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chicago Fire II scores more
53%
level
21%
Toronto II scores more
26%

Chicago Fire II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chicago Fire II are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (67% and 81% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in 81% of Toronto II’s matches
  • Chicago Fire II score first in only 33% of matches
  • Chicago Fire II have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.9 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
WDDWW
II
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chicago Fire II host Toronto II

August 10, 2026: Chicago Fire II take on Toronto II in MLS Next Pro. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chicago Fire II host Toronto II at SeatGeek Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.