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Chicago Fire II vs Thunder Bay Chill — USL League Two 2018

Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
PST
00:00
Thunder Bay Chill
Thunder Bay Chill
7/1/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 44Hoyne Field (Chicago, Illinois)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chicago Fire II49%
×Draw22%
Thunder Bay Chill28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago Fire II
1.90
Thunder Bay Chill
1.39

Chicago Fire II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

creates per match

Chicago Fire II
2.61
Thunder Bay Chill
1.71

allows per match

Chicago Fire II
1.06
Thunder Bay Chill
1.19

finishing

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par
Thunder Bay Chill+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Fire II ↓

Thunder Bay Chill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Chicago Fire II or draw
72%
Chicago Fire II or Thunder Bay Chill
78%
Draw or Thunder Bay Chill
51%

Winning margin

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
28%
Thunder Bay Chill wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
85%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
56%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
29%
Thunder Bay Chill 1+ goals
75%
Thunder Bay Chill 2+ goals
40%
Thunder Bay Chill 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
64%
Thunder Bay Chill (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Fire II at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Thunder Bay Chill away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Fire II attack 2.61 + Thunder Bay Chill defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.90

Thunder Bay Chill attack 1.71 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chicago Fire II scores more
49%
level
22%
Thunder Bay Chill scores more
28%

Chicago Fire II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chicago Fire II host Thunder Bay Chill

July 1, 2020: Chicago Fire II take on Thunder Bay Chill in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chicago Fire II host Thunder Bay Chill at Hoyne Field (Chicago, Illinois).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.