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Chicago Fire II vs FC Cincinnati II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
Preview
20:00
FC Cincinnati II
FC Cincinnati II
8/2/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group StageSeatGeek Stadium
Big match
59%
Chicago Fire II
model favours
59%20%21%

Chicago Fire II are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chicago Fire II59%
×Draw20%
FC Cincinnati II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago Fire II
2.32
FC Cincinnati II
1.33

Chicago Fire II creates 74% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 53 away

creates per match

Chicago Fire II
2.36
FC Cincinnati II
1.09

allows per match

Chicago Fire II
1.56
FC Cincinnati II
2.28

finishing

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par
FC Cincinnati II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Fire II ↓

FC Cincinnati II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Chicago Fire II or draw
79%
Chicago Fire II or FC Cincinnati II
80%
Draw or FC Cincinnati II
41%

Winning margin

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
37%
FC Cincinnati II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
90%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
67%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
40%
FC Cincinnati II 1+ goals
74%
FC Cincinnati II 2+ goals
38%
FC Cincinnati II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
74%
FC Cincinnati II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Fire II at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

FC Cincinnati II away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.28 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Fire II attack 2.36 + FC Cincinnati II defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.32

FC Cincinnati II attack 1.09 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Chicago Fire II scores more
59%
level
20%
FC Cincinnati II scores more
21%

Chicago Fire II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Cincinnati II score first in only 27% of matches
  • Chicago Fire II score first in only 33% of matches
  • 67% of Chicago Fire II’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (67% and 60% over 2.5)
  • 41% of Chicago Fire II’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
WDDWW
II
LDWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chicago Fire II face FC Cincinnati II (MLS Next Pro)

MLS Next Pro returns with Chicago Fire II hosting FC Cincinnati II. Match starts August 2, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chicago Fire II host FC Cincinnati II at SeatGeek Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.