Chicago Fire II 2–0 Columbus Crew II

Chicago Fire II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Columbus Crew II

7/2/2023

MLS Next Pro · Round 22SeatGeek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chicago Fire II50%

×Draw21%

Columbus Crew II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Fire IIExpected goals in this matchColumbus Crew II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.67

Chicago Fire II

2.19

Columbus Crew II

1.67

Chicago Fire II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 51 away

2.36

creates per match

1.78

1.56

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Chicago Fire II

2.36

Columbus Crew II

1.78

allows per match

Chicago Fire II

1.56

Columbus Crew II

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Columbus Crew II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Fire II ↓

Columbus Crew II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Chicago Fire II or draw

70%

Chicago Fire II or Columbus Crew II

79%

Draw or Columbus Crew II

50%

Winning margin

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+

29%

Columbus Crew II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals

89%

Chicago Fire II 2+ goals

64%

Chicago Fire II 3+ goals

37%

Columbus Crew II 1+ goals

81%

Columbus Crew II 2+ goals

50%

Columbus Crew II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)

62%

Columbus Crew II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Fire II at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Columbus Crew II away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Fire II attack 2.36 + Columbus Crew II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.19

Columbus Crew II attack 1.78 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chicago Fire II scores more

50%

level

21%

Columbus Crew II scores more

30%

Chicago Fire II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff