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Chicago Fire II vs Chattanooga — MLS Next Pro 2022

Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
Preview
18:00
Chattanooga
Chattanooga
9/20/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group StageSeatGeek Stadium
49%
Chicago Fire II
model favours
49%21%30%

Chattanooga have scored in 15 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
69%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Chicago Fire II49%
×Draw21%
Chattanooga30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago Fire II
2.06
Chattanooga
1.58

Chicago Fire II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 25 away

creates per match

Chicago Fire II
2.36
Chattanooga
1.60

allows per match

Chicago Fire II
1.56
Chattanooga
1.76

finishing

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par
Chattanooga+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Fire II ↓

Chattanooga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Chicago Fire II or draw
70%
Chicago Fire II or Chattanooga
79%
Draw or Chattanooga
51%

Winning margin

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
28%
Chattanooga wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
87%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
61%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
34%
Chattanooga 1+ goals
79%
Chattanooga 2+ goals
47%
Chattanooga 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
62%
Chattanooga (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Fire II at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Chattanooga away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Fire II attack 2.36 + Chattanooga defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.06

Chattanooga attack 1.60 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chicago Fire II scores more
49%
level
21%
Chattanooga scores more
30%

Chicago Fire II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chattanooga are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Chicago Fire II are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • 52% of Chattanooga’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Chicago Fire II score first in only 33% of matches
  • Both teams score in 75% of Chattanooga’s matches
  • 67% of Chicago Fire II’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
WDDWW
Chattanooga
DWDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chicago Fire II host Chattanooga

September 20, 2026: Chicago Fire II take on Chattanooga in MLS Next Pro. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chicago Fire II host Chattanooga at SeatGeek Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.