Kashima vs Kawasaki Frontale — J1 League 2013
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 12+ matches
Kashima33%
Kawasaki Frontale42%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kawasaki Frontale creates 16% more chances
Season form · 14 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kashima ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kashima at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 14 matches
Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kashima attack 1.31 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28
Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.76 + Kashima defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Kawasaki Frontale at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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Gamba Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
Yokohama F. Marinos
Urawa
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya GrampusKawasaki Frontale
Fagiano Okayama
Tokyo Verdy
Avispa Fukuoka
Shimizu S-pulse
V-varen Nagasaki
Yokohama FC
Mito Hollyhock
JEF United Chiba
Shonan Bellmare
Albirex NiigataIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kashima host Kawasaki Frontale on Sunday, 27 October 2013 at 07:00. The match is part of the J1 League 2013/2014 season.
J1 League: Kashima 4–1 Kawasaki Frontale
Kashima beat Kawasaki Frontale 4-1 in J1 League on October 27, 2013.
Goals: S. Doi (20'), Y. Osako (44'), K. Yamamura (56'), Y. Endo (61'), Y. Ōkubo (90+1').
The match was played at Kashima Soccer Stadium.