Academico Viseu 2–2 Leixoes: Result & Stats

Academico Viseu

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Leixoes

Zé Pedro 90+5'

Bura 18'

Bruno Lamas 81' (pen)

S. Fatai 64'

4/2/2017

Segunda Liga · Round 34Estádio Municipal do Fontelo (Viseu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Academico Viseu41%

×Draw28%

Leixoes31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academico ViseuExpected goals in this matchLeixoes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.06

Academico Viseu

1.27

Leixoes

1.06

Academico Viseu creates 20% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 130 away

1.25

creates per match

1.04

1.09

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Academico Viseu

1.25

Leixoes

1.04

allows per match

Academico Viseu

1.09

Leixoes

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Leixoes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academico Viseu ↓

Leixoes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Academico Viseu or draw

69%

Academico Viseu or Leixoes

72%

Draw or Leixoes

59%

Winning margin

Academico Viseu wins by 2+

18%

Leixoes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Academico Viseu 1+ goals

72%

Academico Viseu 2+ goals

36%

Academico Viseu 3+ goals

14%

Leixoes 1+ goals

65%

Leixoes 2+ goals

29%

Leixoes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)

57%

Leixoes (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academico Viseu at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.09 · 129 matches

Leixoes away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.29 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academico Viseu attack 1.25 + Leixoes defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Leixoes attack 1.04 + Academico Viseu defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Academico Viseu scores more

41%

level

28%

Leixoes scores more

31%

Academico Viseu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Bura

61'

Luisinho← Tiago Borges

61'

Tino← Rui Cardoso

64'

S. Fatai

68'

Yuri← Zé Paulo

79'

Miguel Ângelo← Ença Fati

81'

Bruno LamasPenalty

84'

Zé Pedro← Capela

84'

André Salvador← Rafael Porcellis

90+5'

Zé Pedro