Chiangmai United 3–0 Chainat: Result & Stats

Chiangmai United

FT

3 – 0

Chainat

2/22/2020

Thai League 2 · Round 2RMUTL Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Chiangmai United49%

×Draw25%

Chainat26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chiangmai UnitedExpected goals in this matchChainat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.08

Chiangmai United

1.58

Chainat

1.08

Chiangmai United creates 46% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 105 away

1.67

creates per match

1.07

1.09

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Chiangmai United

1.67

Chainat

1.07

allows per match

Chiangmai United

1.09

Chainat

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiangmai United+0.00on par

Chainat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai United ↓

Chainat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chiangmai United or draw

74%

Chiangmai United or Chainat

75%

Draw or Chainat

51%

Winning margin

Chiangmai United wins by 2+

25%

Chainat wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chiangmai United 1+ goals

79%

Chiangmai United 2+ goals

47%

Chiangmai United 3+ goals

21%

Chainat 1+ goals

66%

Chainat 2+ goals

29%

Chainat 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai United (draw refunded)

65%

Chainat (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.09 · 104 matches

Chainat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.49 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai United attack 1.67 + Chainat defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.58

Chainat attack 1.07 + Chiangmai United defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chiangmai United scores more

49%

level

25%

Chainat scores more

26%

Chiangmai United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chiangmai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff