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Chiangmai FC vs Chainat — Thai League 2 2018

Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Chainat
Chainat
10/24/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 10Chiangmai Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Chiangmai FC50%
×Draw25%
Chainat26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangmai FC
1.64
Chainat
1.10

Chiangmai FC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 105 away

creates per match

Chiangmai FC
1.78
Chainat
1.07

allows per match

Chiangmai FC
1.12
Chainat
1.49

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par
Chainat+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

Chainat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw
74%
Chiangmai FC or Chainat
75%
Draw or Chainat
50%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
26%
Chainat wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
81%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
49%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
23%
Chainat 1+ goals
67%
Chainat 2+ goals
30%
Chainat 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
66%
Chainat (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Chainat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.49 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 1.78 + Chainat defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.64

Chainat attack 1.07 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more
50%
level
25%
Chainat scores more
26%

Chiangmai FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Chiangmai FC 1–3 Chainat

Chainat beat Chiangmai FC 3-1 in Thai League 2 on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Chiangmai Municipality Stadium in Chiang Mai.