Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury — League Two 2018

Chesterfield
Chesterfield
Preview
15:00
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
11/21/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 16SMH Group Stadium
46%
Chesterfield
model favours
46%26%28%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Chesterfield46%
×Draw26%
Shrewsbury28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chesterfield
1.45
Shrewsbury
1.06

Chesterfield creates 37% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Chesterfield
1.69
Shrewsbury
0.74

allows per match

Chesterfield
1.38
Shrewsbury
1.21

finishing

Chesterfield-0.19scores less
Shrewsbury-0.07on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw
72%
Chesterfield or Shrewsbury
74%
Draw or Shrewsbury
54%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+
23%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals
77%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
42%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
18%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
65%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
29%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)
62%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.21 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.69 + Shrewsbury defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.45

Shrewsbury attack 0.74 + Chesterfield defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chesterfield scores more
46%
level
26%
Shrewsbury scores more
28%

Chesterfield at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches
  • Shrewsbury raise their game against the top half — 29% wins vs the upper half, only 27% vs the lower
  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches
  • Style contrast — Chesterfield play Possession-dominant, Shrewsbury Direct / counter-attacking
  • Chesterfield sit 7, Shrewsbury 19 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
60%Possession43%
78%Pass accuracy60%
12.3Shots11.4
1.50xGBiggest gap0.93
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ChesterfieldShrewsbury

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chesterfield
LDDLW
Shrewsbury
WWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chesterfield face Shrewsbury (League Two)

League Two returns with Chesterfield hosting Shrewsbury. Match starts November 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chesterfield host Shrewsbury at SMH Group Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.