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Chesterfield vs Rochdale — League Two 2018

Chesterfield
Chesterfield
Preview
15:00
Rochdale
Rochdale
3/26/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 37SMH Group Stadium
Big match
49%
Chesterfield
model favours
49%26%25%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Chesterfield49%
×Draw26%
Rochdale25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chesterfield
1.50
Rochdale
0.98

Chesterfield creates 53% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 56 away

creates per match

Chesterfield
1.64
Rochdale
0.95

allows per match

Chesterfield
1.01
Rochdale
1.36

finishing

Chesterfield+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw
75%
Chesterfield or Rochdale
74%
Draw or Rochdale
51%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+
25%
Rochdale wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals
78%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
44%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
19%
Rochdale 1+ goals
62%
Rochdale 2+ goals
26%
Rochdale 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)
67%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.01 · 72 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.64 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Chesterfield defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chesterfield scores more
49%
level
26%
Rochdale scores more
25%

Chesterfield at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
Rochdale
Balanced
60%Possession52%
78%Pass accuracy70%
12.2ShotsBiggest gap10.5
1.38xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ChesterfieldRochdale

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Chesterfield
2
Draws
4
Rochdale
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 70%
2–22–12–11–30–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chesterfield
LDDLW
Rochdale
DLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chesterfield face Rochdale (League Two)

League Two returns with Chesterfield hosting Rochdale. Match starts March 26, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chesterfield host Rochdale at SMH Group Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.