Chesterfield 6–0 Barnet: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

6 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barnet

J. McCourt 89'

A. Asante 79', 74', 40'

H. Hollis 64'

S. Boden 56'

12/12/2020

League #43 · Round 15Technique Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Chesterfield61%

×Draw19%

Barnet20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchBarnet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.30

Chesterfield

2.40

Barnet

1.30

Chesterfield creates 85% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

2.50

creates per match

1.10

1.50

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Chesterfield

2.50

Barnet

1.10

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.50

Barnet

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chesterfield+0.00on par

Barnet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Barnet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

80%

Chesterfield or Barnet

81%

Draw or Barnet

39%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

40%

Barnet wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

91%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

69%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

42%

Barnet 1+ goals

73%

Barnet 2+ goals

37%

Barnet 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

76%

Barnet (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 2.50 + Barnet defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.40

Barnet attack 1.10 + Chesterfield defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chesterfield scores more

61%

level

19%

Barnet scores more

20%

Chesterfield at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

56'

57'

60'

64'

J. Cropper← G. Carline

64'

H. Hollis

74'

A. Asante

79'

A. Asante

80'

L. Mandeville← A. Asante

89'

J. McCourt

90'

H. Taylor

Chesterfield

Barnet

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Boden

⚽3

▼

Asante

Manager: J. Rowe

60'▲T. Denton←▼S. Boden

64'▲J. Cropper←▼G. Carline

80'▲L. Mandeville←▼A. Asante

Chesterfield substitutes

DentonCropperMandevilleSmithDenton

Manager: P. Beadle

57'▲J. Hooper←▼M. Faal

Barnet substitutes

HooperAzazeVasiliouFonguckPascal