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Chester vs Oxford City — League #50 2026

Chester
Chester
Preview
15:00
Oxford City
Oxford City
12/5/2026League #50League #50 · National League North - 20Deva Stadium
47%
Chester
model favours
47%22%31%

Chester and Oxford City have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chester47%
×Draw22%
Oxford City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chester
1.88
Oxford City
1.50

Chester creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Chester
1.75
Oxford City
2.00

allows per match

Chester
1.00
Oxford City
2.00

finishing

Chester+0.00on par
Oxford City+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chester ↓

Oxford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Chester or draw
69%
Chester or Oxford City
78%
Draw or Oxford City
53%

Winning margin

Chester wins by 2+
26%
Oxford City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chester 1+ goals
85%
Chester 2+ goals
56%
Chester 3+ goals
29%
Oxford City 1+ goals
78%
Oxford City 2+ goals
44%
Oxford City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Chester (draw refunded)
60%
Oxford City (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chester at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Oxford City away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chester attack 1.75 + Oxford City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Oxford City attack 2.00 + Chester defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chester scores more
47%
level
22%
Oxford City scores more
31%

Chester at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Chester
LWLWL
City
WWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chester face Oxford City (League #50)

League #50 returns with Chester hosting Oxford City. Match starts December 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chester host Oxford City at Deva Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.