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Chertsey Town vs Evesham United — League #60 2026

Chertsey Town
Chertsey Town
Preview
18:45
Evesham United
Evesham United
10/20/2026League #60League #60 · Round 14
72%
Chertsey Town
model favours
72%19%9%

Evesham United score first in only 14% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
38%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chertsey Town72%
×Draw19%
Evesham United9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertsey Town
2.06
Evesham United
0.58

Chertsey Town creates 255% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Chertsey Town
2.25
Evesham United
0.67

allows per match

Chertsey Town
0.50
Evesham United
1.87

finishing

Chertsey Town+0.00on par
Evesham United+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertsey Town ↓

Evesham United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chertsey Town or draw
91%
Chertsey Town or Evesham United
81%
Draw or Evesham United
28%

Winning margin

Chertsey Town wins by 2+
46%
Evesham United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Chertsey Town 1+ goals
87%
Chertsey Town 2+ goals
61%
Chertsey Town 3+ goals
34%
Evesham United 1+ goals
44%
Evesham United 2+ goals
12%
Evesham United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Chertsey Town (draw refunded)
89%
Evesham United (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertsey Town at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Evesham United away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertsey Town attack 2.25 + Evesham United defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.06

Evesham United attack 0.67 + Chertsey Town defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Chertsey Town scores more
72%
level
19%
Evesham United scores more
9%

Chertsey Town at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Chertsey Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Evesham United win just 7% of their away games
  • Chertsey Town sit 12, Evesham United 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Town
WLLD
United
LWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chertsey Town face Evesham United (League #60)

League #60 returns with Chertsey Town hosting Evesham United. Match starts October 20, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.