Chertanovo W 8–0 Krylya Sovetov W: Result & Stats

Chertanovo W

FT

8 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Krylya Sovetov W

10/20/2023

Supreme Division Women · Lower Table Round - 1Arena Chertanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Chertanovo W47%

×Draw26%

Krylya Sovetov W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo WExpected goals in this matchKrylya Sovetov W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.04

Chertanovo W

1.46

Krylya Sovetov W

1.04

Chertanovo W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 44 away

0.92

creates per match

0.50

1.58

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Chertanovo W

0.92

Krylya Sovetov W

0.50

allows per match

Chertanovo W

1.58

Krylya Sovetov W

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo W+0.00on par

Krylya Sovetov W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo W ↓

Krylya Sovetov W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Chertanovo W or draw

73%

Chertanovo W or Krylya Sovetov W

74%

Draw or Krylya Sovetov W

53%

Winning margin

Chertanovo W wins by 2+

23%

Krylya Sovetov W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chertanovo W 1+ goals

77%

Chertanovo W 2+ goals

43%

Chertanovo W 3+ goals

18%

Krylya Sovetov W 1+ goals

65%

Krylya Sovetov W 2+ goals

28%

Krylya Sovetov W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo W (draw refunded)

63%

Krylya Sovetov W (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo W at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 77 matches

Krylya Sovetov W away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo W attack 0.92 + Krylya Sovetov W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Krylya Sovetov W attack 0.50 + Chertanovo W defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chertanovo W scores more

47%

level

26%

Krylya Sovetov W scores more

27%

Chertanovo W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chertanovo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff