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Chertanovo W vs Krasnodar W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Chertanovo W
Chertanovo W
Preview
10:00
Krasnodar W
Krasnodar W
9/5/2026Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 18Chertanovo Arena
Big match
36%
Chertanovo W
model favours
36%27%36%

Chertanovo W have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Chertanovo W36%
×Draw27%
Krasnodar W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo W
1.22
Krasnodar W
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 75 away

creates per match

Chertanovo W
0.92
Krasnodar W
0.85

allows per match

Chertanovo W
1.58
Krasnodar W
1.51

finishing

Chertanovo W+0.00on par
Krasnodar W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo W ↓

Krasnodar W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chertanovo W or draw
64%
Chertanovo W or Krasnodar W
73%
Draw or Krasnodar W
64%

Winning margin

Chertanovo W wins by 2+
16%
Krasnodar W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chertanovo W 1+ goals
70%
Chertanovo W 2+ goals
34%
Chertanovo W 3+ goals
12%
Krasnodar W 1+ goals
70%
Krasnodar W 2+ goals
34%
Krasnodar W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo W (draw refunded)
50%
Krasnodar W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo W at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 77 matches

Krasnodar W away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.51 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo W attack 0.92 + Krasnodar W defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.22

Krasnodar W attack 0.85 + Chertanovo W defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Chertanovo W scores more
36%
level
27%
Krasnodar W scores more
36%

Chertanovo W at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Chertanovo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
DLWLW
W
LDLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chertanovo W host Krasnodar W

September 5, 2026: Chertanovo W take on Krasnodar W in Supreme Division Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chertanovo W host Krasnodar W at Chertanovo Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.