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Chertanovo W vs CSKA Moskva W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Chertanovo W
Chertanovo W
Preview
10:00
CSKA Moskva W
CSKA Moskva W
9/19/2026Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 20Chertanovo Arena
Big match
65%
CSKA Moskva W
model favours
13%22%65%

CSKA Moskva W have won 10 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Chertanovo W13%
×Draw22%
CSKA Moskva W65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo W
0.70
CSKA Moskva W
1.87

CSKA Moskva W creates 167% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 75 away

creates per match

Chertanovo W
0.92
CSKA Moskva W
2.16

allows per match

Chertanovo W
1.58
CSKA Moskva W
0.47

finishing

Chertanovo W+0.00on par
CSKA Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo W ↓

CSKA Moskva W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–213%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chertanovo W or draw
35%
Chertanovo W or CSKA Moskva W
78%
Draw or CSKA Moskva W
87%

Winning margin

Chertanovo W wins by 2+
4%
CSKA Moskva W wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Chertanovo W 1+ goals
50%
Chertanovo W 2+ goals
16%
Chertanovo W 3+ goals
3%
CSKA Moskva W 1+ goals
85%
CSKA Moskva W 2+ goals
56%
CSKA Moskva W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo W (draw refunded)
17%
CSKA Moskva W (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo W at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 77 matches

CSKA Moskva W away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.47 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo W attack 0.92 + CSKA Moskva W defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.70

CSKA Moskva W attack 2.16 + Chertanovo W defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Chertanovo W scores more
13%
level
22%
CSKA Moskva W scores more
65%

CSKA Moskva W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "CSKA Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chertanovo W win just 10% against the top half (vs 44% against the bottom)
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DLWLW
W
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chertanovo W host CSKA Moskva W

September 19, 2026: Chertanovo W take on CSKA Moskva W in Supreme Division Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chertanovo W host CSKA Moskva W at Chertanovo Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.