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Chertanovo Moscow vs Zvezda St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
Preview
13:00
Zvezda St. Petersburg
Zvezda St. Petersburg
7/26/2026Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Chertanovo Arena
Big match
46%
Chertanovo Moscow
model favours
46%25%29%

Even after scoring first, Zvezda St. Petersburg win only 40%

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow46%
×Draw25%
Zvezda St. Petersburg29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo Moscow
1.62
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.23

Chertanovo Moscow creates 32% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 89 away

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.55
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.22

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.23
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.69

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par
Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Zvezda St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw
71%
Chertanovo Moscow or Zvezda St. Petersburg
75%
Draw or Zvezda St. Petersburg
54%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
24%
Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
80%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
48%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
22%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals
71%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals
35%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
62%
Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.69 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.55 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.62

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.22 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more
46%
level
25%
Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more
29%

Chertanovo Moscow at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Zvezda St. Petersburg score first in 67% of matches
  • 38% of Zvezda St. Petersburg’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • Zvezda St. Petersburg win just 10% against the top half (vs 52% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Moscow
DDWWW
Petersburg
DWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chertanovo Moscow face Zvezda St. Petersburg (Second League - Group 2)

Second League - Group 2 returns with Chertanovo Moscow hosting Zvezda St. Petersburg. Match starts July 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chertanovo Moscow host Zvezda St. Petersburg at Chertanovo Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.