Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chernomorets vs SKA Rostov — Second League - Group 1 2020

Chernomorets
Chernomorets
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
3/6/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Chernomorets48%
×Draw24%
SKA Rostov28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets
1.70
SKA Rostov
1.23

Chernomorets creates 38% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 58 away

creates per match

Chernomorets
2.21
SKA Rostov
1.79

allows per match

Chernomorets
0.66
SKA Rostov
1.19

finishing

Chernomorets+0.00on par
SKA Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets ↓

SKA Rostov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chernomorets or draw
72%
Chernomorets or SKA Rostov
76%
Draw or SKA Rostov
52%

Winning margin

Chernomorets wins by 2+
26%
SKA Rostov wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1+ goals
82%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
51%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
24%
SKA Rostov 1+ goals
71%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
35%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets (draw refunded)
64%
SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.66 · 47 matches

SKA Rostov away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets attack 2.21 + SKA Rostov defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.70

SKA Rostov attack 1.79 + Chernomorets defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chernomorets scores more
48%
level
24%
SKA Rostov scores more
28%

Chernomorets at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Chernomorets 1–0 SKA Rostov

Chernomorets beat SKA Rostov 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj in Novorossiysk.