Chernomorets 1–1 Kuban Kholding: Result & Stats

Chernomorets

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kuban Kholding

3/20/2021

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Chernomorets51%

×Draw25%

Kuban Kholding24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChernomoretsExpected goals in this matchKuban Kholding

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.01

Chernomorets

1.59

Kuban Kholding

1.01

Chernomorets creates 57% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 91 away

2.21

creates per match

1.35

0.66

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Chernomorets

2.21

Kuban Kholding

1.35

allows per match

Chernomorets

0.66

Kuban Kholding

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernomorets+0.00on par

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets ↓

Kuban Kholding →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chernomorets or draw

76%

Chernomorets or Kuban Kholding

75%

Draw or Kuban Kholding

49%

Winning margin

Chernomorets wins by 2+

27%

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1+ goals

80%

Chernomorets 2+ goals

47%

Chernomorets 3+ goals

21%

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals

64%

Kuban Kholding 2+ goals

27%

Kuban Kholding 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets (draw refunded)

68%

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.66 · 47 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets attack 2.21 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.59

Kuban Kholding attack 1.35 + Chernomorets defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chernomorets scores more

51%

level

25%

Kuban Kholding scores more

24%

Chernomorets at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff