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Chernomorets vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Chernomorets
Chernomorets
Canc
12:00
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1/24/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Chernomorets56%
×Draw21%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets
2.06
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.26

Chernomorets creates 63% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

creates per match

Chernomorets
2.00
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.06

allows per match

Chernomorets
1.46
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
2.13

finishing

Chernomorets+0.00on par
Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets ↓

Etar Veliko Tarnovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Chernomorets or draw
77%
Chernomorets or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
79%
Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
44%

Winning margin

Chernomorets wins by 2+
33%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1+ goals
87%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
61%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
34%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals
72%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals
36%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets (draw refunded)
71%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets attack 2.00 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.06

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.06 + Chernomorets defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chernomorets scores more
56%
level
21%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more
23%

Chernomorets at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chernomorets vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo — Match Preview

Chernomorets face Etar Veliko Tarnovo on January 24, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Chernomorets host Etar Veliko Tarnovo at Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.