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Cherno More Varna vs Slavia Sofia — First League 2018

Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia
9/23/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Ticha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Cherno More Varna47%
×Draw28%
Slavia Sofia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno More Varna
1.37
Slavia Sofia
0.91

Cherno More Varna creates 51% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 138 away

creates per match

Cherno More Varna
1.40
Slavia Sofia
1.00

allows per match

Cherno More Varna
0.81
Slavia Sofia
1.34

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par
Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

Slavia Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw
75%
Cherno More Varna or Slavia Sofia
72%
Draw or Slavia Sofia
53%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
23%
Slavia Sofia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
75%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
40%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
16%
Slavia Sofia 1+ goals
60%
Slavia Sofia 2+ goals
23%
Slavia Sofia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
66%
Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.81 · 137 matches

Slavia Sofia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.40 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.37

Slavia Sofia attack 1.00 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more
47%
level
28%
Slavia Sofia scores more
25%

Cherno More Varna at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Cherno More Varna 1–2 Slavia Sofia

Slavia Sofia beat Cherno More Varna 2-1 in First League on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Ticha Stadium in Varna.