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Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets — First League 2018

Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ludogorets
Ludogorets
5/19/2024First LeagueFirst League · Championship Round - 3Stadion Ticha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Cherno More Varna31%
×Draw27%
Ludogorets41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno More Varna
1.11
Ludogorets
1.32

Ludogorets creates 19% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 133 away

creates per match

Cherno More Varna
1.40
Ludogorets
1.83

allows per match

Cherno More Varna
0.81
Ludogorets
0.83

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par
Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

Ludogorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw
59%
Cherno More Varna or Ludogorets
73%
Draw or Ludogorets
69%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
12%
Ludogorets wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
67%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
30%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
10%
Ludogorets 1+ goals
73%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
38%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
43%
Ludogorets (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.81 · 137 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.40 + Ludogorets defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.11

Ludogorets attack 1.83 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more
31%
level
27%
Ludogorets scores more
41%

Ludogorets at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets

Cherno More Varna beat Ludogorets 4-0 in First League on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ticha in Varna.