Cherno More Varna vs CSKA 1948 — Friendlies Clubs 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 13+ matches
Cherno More Varna57%
CSKA 194819%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Cherno More Varna creates 100% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Cherno More Varna ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches
CSKA 1948 away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Cherno More Varna attack 1.59 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.68
CSKA 1948 attack 0.92 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.84
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Cherno More Varna at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Cherno More Varna host CSKA 1948 on Tuesday, 17 January 2023 at 13:00. The match is part of the Friendlies Clubs 2026/2027 season.
Cherno More Varna face CSKA 1948 (Friendlies Clubs)
Friendlies Clubs returns with Cherno More Varna hosting CSKA 1948. Match starts January 17, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Cherno More Varna host CSKA 1948 at TBC.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.