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Cherno More Varna vs CSKA 1948 — First League 2026

Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
M. Coureur 21'
M. Kamburov 63' (pen)
G. Ivanov 29'
10/30/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Stadion Ticha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Cherno More Varna42%
×Draw28%
CSKA 194830%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno More Varna
1.25
CSKA 1948
1.02

Cherno More Varna creates 23% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 105 away

creates per match

Cherno More Varna
1.40
CSKA 1948
1.22

allows per match

Cherno More Varna
0.81
CSKA 1948
1.09

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par
CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

CSKA 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw
70%
Cherno More Varna or CSKA 1948
72%
Draw or CSKA 1948
58%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
18%
CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
71%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
36%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
13%
CSKA 1948 1+ goals
64%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
27%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
58%
CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.81 · 137 matches

CSKA 1948 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.40 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

CSKA 1948 attack 1.22 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more
42%
level
28%
CSKA 1948 scores more
30%

Cherno More Varna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
M. Coureur
29'
G. Ivanov
41'
Galin Ivanov
54'
Daniel Dimov
58'
A. Bastunov← D. Aleksandrov
61'
Vasil Panayotov
63'
M. KamburovPenalty
68'
Rodrigo Vilela← Leandro Andrade
70'
Serkan Ussein
80'
G. Bozhilov← I. Isa
82'
I. Chochev← S. Yusein
89'
M. Minkov← V. Shopov
89'
A. Gushterov← M. Kamburov
90'
Mihail Minkov

Possession

50%Cherno

Shots

11Cherno

Statistics

ChernoCSKA
Overview
50%Possession50%
11Total Shots6
8Corners4
12Fouls16
Shots
11Total Shots6
3On Target3
8Off Target3
Passing
50%Possession50%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls16
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides3

First League: Cherno More Varna 1–2 CSKA 1948

CSKA 1948 beat Cherno More Varna 2-1 in First League on October 30, 2020.

Goals: M. Coureur (21'), G. Ivanov (29'), M. Kamburov (63' pen).

Cherno More Varna controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadion Ticha in Varna.