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Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv — First League 2018

Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
3/4/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Stadion Ticha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Cherno More Varna48%
×Draw27%
Botev Plovdiv25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno More Varna
1.39
Botev Plovdiv
0.93

Cherno More Varna creates 49% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 136 away

creates per match

Cherno More Varna
1.40
Botev Plovdiv
1.05

allows per match

Cherno More Varna
0.81
Botev Plovdiv
1.38

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

Botev Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw
75%
Cherno More Varna or Botev Plovdiv
73%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv
52%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
23%
Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
75%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
40%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
16%
Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
61%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
24%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
65%
Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.81 · 137 matches

Botev Plovdiv away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.38 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.40 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.05 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more
48%
level
27%
Botev Plovdiv scores more
25%

Cherno More Varna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv

Botev Plovdiv beat Cherno More Varna 2-1 in First League on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ticha in Varna.