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Cherno More Varna vs Arda Kardzhali — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
FT
3 – 2
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
6/30/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Terenite na Evima Futbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Cherno More Varna47%
×Draw26%
Arda Kardzhali27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno More Varna
1.45
Arda Kardzhali
1.03

Cherno More Varna creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

creates per match

Cherno More Varna
1.59
Arda Kardzhali
1.30

allows per match

Cherno More Varna
0.76
Arda Kardzhali
1.30

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw
73%
Cherno More Varna or Arda Kardzhali
74%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
53%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
23%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
77%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
42%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
18%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
64%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
28%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
64%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.59 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.30 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more
47%
level
26%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
27%

Cherno More Varna at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cherno More Varna vs Arda Kardzhali

Cherno More Varna beat Arda Kardzhali 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at Terenite na Evima Futbol in Bansko.