Cheng Fung vs Universidade de Macau

Cheng Fung

Preview

11:00

Universidade de Macau

7/24/2026

Primeira Divisão · Round 18

Big match

51%

Cheng Fung

model favours

51%20%30%

2–1

likely score

79%

over 2.5 goals

76%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cheng Fung51%

×Draw20%

Universidade de Macau30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cheng FungExpected goals in this matchUniversidade de Macau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.83

Cheng Fung

2.41

Universidade de Macau

1.83

Cheng Fung creates 32% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 26 away

2.19

creates per match

1.54

2.13

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Cheng Fung

2.19

Universidade de Macau

1.54

allows per match

Cheng Fung

2.13

Universidade de Macau

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheng Fung+0.00on par

Universidade de Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheng Fung ↓

Universidade de Macau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Cheng Fung or draw

70%

Cheng Fung or Universidade de Macau

80%

Draw or Universidade de Macau

49%

Winning margin

Cheng Fung wins by 2+

31%

Universidade de Macau wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cheng Fung 1+ goals

91%

Cheng Fung 2+ goals

69%

Cheng Fung 3+ goals

43%

Universidade de Macau 1+ goals

84%

Universidade de Macau 2+ goals

54%

Universidade de Macau 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Cheng Fung (draw refunded)

63%

Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheng Fung at home — creates 2.19, concedes 2.13 · 31 matches

Universidade de Macau away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheng Fung attack 2.19 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.41

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Cheng Fung defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cheng Fung scores more

51%

level

20%

Universidade de Macau scores more

30%

Cheng Fung at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cheng Fung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Fung

LDLDD

Macau

LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff