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Chemnitzer FC vs Hallescher FC — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Chemnitzer FC
Chemnitzer FC
Preview
13:00
Hallescher FC
Hallescher FC
2/14/2027Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 21
Big match
43%
Hallescher FC
model favours
32%25%43%
1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Chemnitzer FC32%
×Draw25%
Hallescher FC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemnitzer FC
1.25
Hallescher FC
1.50

Hallescher FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC
1.36
Hallescher FC
1.63

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC
1.36
Hallescher FC
1.13

finishing

Chemnitzer FC+0.00on par
Hallescher FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC ↓

Hallescher FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC or draw
57%
Chemnitzer FC or Hallescher FC
75%
Draw or Hallescher FC
68%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC wins by 2+
13%
Hallescher FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC 1+ goals
71%
Chemnitzer FC 2+ goals
36%
Chemnitzer FC 3+ goals
13%
Hallescher FC 1+ goals
78%
Hallescher FC 2+ goals
44%
Hallescher FC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC (draw refunded)
42%
Hallescher FC (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Hallescher FC away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC attack 1.36 + Hallescher FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Hallescher FC attack 1.63 + Chemnitzer FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chemnitzer FC scores more
32%
level
25%
Hallescher FC scores more
43%

Hallescher FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hallescher FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FC
LWWDD
FC
LWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chemnitzer FC face Hallescher FC (Regionalliga - Nordost)

Regionalliga - Nordost returns with Chemnitzer FC hosting Hallescher FC. Match starts February 14, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.