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Chemnitzer FC vs Greifswalder FC — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Chemnitzer FC
Chemnitzer FC
Preview
13:00
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
11/8/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 16
Big match
40%
Chemnitzer FC
model favours
40%26%34%

Greifswalder FC score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Chemnitzer FC40%
×Draw26%
Greifswalder FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemnitzer FC
1.38
Greifswalder FC
1.24

Chemnitzer FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 33 away

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC
1.36
Greifswalder FC
1.12

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC
1.36
Greifswalder FC
1.39

finishing

Chemnitzer FC+0.00on par
Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC ↓

Greifswalder FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC or draw
66%
Chemnitzer FC or Greifswalder FC
74%
Draw or Greifswalder FC
60%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC wins by 2+
19%
Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC 1+ goals
75%
Chemnitzer FC 2+ goals
40%
Chemnitzer FC 3+ goals
16%
Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
71%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
35%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC (draw refunded)
54%
Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC attack 1.36 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Greifswalder FC attack 1.12 + Chemnitzer FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chemnitzer FC scores more
40%
level
26%
Greifswalder FC scores more
34%

Chemnitzer FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chemnitzer FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 91% of Greifswalder FC’s matches
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
LWWDD
FC
DLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chemnitzer FC host Greifswalder FC

November 8, 2026: Chemnitzer FC take on Greifswalder FC in Regionalliga - Nordost. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.