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Chemal vs Inter Nouakchott — Premier League 2020

Chemal
Chemal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Inter Nouakchott
Inter Nouakchott
2/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Chemal48%
×Draw29%
Inter Nouakchott23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemal
1.30
Inter Nouakchott
0.80

Chemal creates 63% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 66 away

creates per match

Chemal
1.13
Inter Nouakchott
0.77

allows per match

Chemal
0.84
Inter Nouakchott
1.48

finishing

Chemal+0.00on par
Inter Nouakchott+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemal ↓

Inter Nouakchott →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chemal or draw
77%
Chemal or Inter Nouakchott
71%
Draw or Inter Nouakchott
52%

Winning margin

Chemal wins by 2+
23%
Inter Nouakchott wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chemal 1+ goals
73%
Chemal 2+ goals
37%
Chemal 3+ goals
14%
Inter Nouakchott 1+ goals
55%
Inter Nouakchott 2+ goals
19%
Inter Nouakchott 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chemal (draw refunded)
68%
Inter Nouakchott (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemal at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.84 · 55 matches

Inter Nouakchott away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemal attack 1.13 + Inter Nouakchott defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Inter Nouakchott attack 0.77 + Chemal defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chemal scores more
48%
level
29%
Inter Nouakchott scores more
23%

Chemal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chemal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Chemal 1–0 Inter Nouakchott

Chemal beat Inter Nouakchott 1-0 in Premier League on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.